Speaker: Audrey LUSTIG, Student from National Institute of Applied Sciences (INSA), Lyon, France.

An analysis of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related precipitation changes in New Caledonia, southwestern tropical Pacific, based on 21 selected stations covering the 1969–2010 period is presently driven in the context of the INC-ANR project. Previous studies highlighted a strong relationship between the interannual variability of rainfall anomalies and ENSO signals in this region (Barbero, Moron, Mangeas, Despinoy 2010) . A present issue about the ENSO phenomenon is the investigation about its variation in intensity and frequency in relation to global climate change (e.g. global warming) as well as its influence on climate change. The understanding of ENSO has increased since - in the late 1980s - it became possible to reproduce some features associated to such events for weather prediction. However, the causes of the ENSO phenomenon and its fluctuations remains largely unknown.These considerations motivate our approach in developing a new time series analysis, based on the possible memory of ENSO to simultaneously extract intra- and inter-annual variations.

After introducing the general context and the methods used for time series analysis, I will present the first results based on ENSO analysis, and what I am prospecting to do next.

Organisers: Department of Ecology, French Institute of Pondicherry.

Venue : Jawaharlal Nehru Conference Hall, French Institute of Pondicherry, 11, Saint Louis Street, Pondicherry - 605 001.