Date de publication:
08 Février 2013
Mots-clefs:
- géographie électorale
- working papers
- publication
- élections
- Kenya
Publié ici :
08 Février 2013Mis à jour le :
23 Juin 2017Zone géographique:
- Afrique
Kenya's 2013 elections - Voters’ registration and polls analysis
January 15th 2013, Elections Meeting Report, janvier 2013, 9 p.
First Observations
On the first hand, we observe a progression of the volume of voters, higher than normal demographic growth, there is an increase of 1.600.000 voters in comparison with 2007, while the planed demographic growth of the electoral population, based on the 14‐18 years old cohort and the mortality rate of 2007, was estimated to 400 000 individuals, and a progression of the percentage (due to the higher challenge of a general election than a referendum). On the other hand, we note the same geographical distribution that in 2010, with the same zones of high registration: the center and the cities, the axis Nairobi‐Nakuru‐Kericho‐Kisumu and some isolated zones (North Coast, Western Provinces) (cf Appendix’ Map).
What is new in 2012 is in the differential observed: the high increase in the cities and in the first circle around Mount Kenya (Kiambu, Mjuranga, Kirinyaga and Nakuru counties) and Lamu (with rates approaching or exceeding 100%), high levels in a second circle to the west adjacent to central "Kikuyu" counties, the Kamba counties in the east, and in the north the Lakipia, Embu, Tharaka and Meru counties, as well as on the Nairobi‐Mombasa axis and on the Nakuru‐Kericho‐Kisumu axis (rate 80/100%). However there is a cap in the Western, Coast, Nyanza, Rift South and North provinces, with low rates in some constituencies around Mount Elgon, and in some constituencies where labor migration are important, while the counties bordering Somalia and in Turkana have lower rates than in 2010.
An approach by constituencies (of those with the highest rates) qualifies and refines this analysis with the access to data partly masked by totals counties, sometimes highlighting important discrepancies within the constituencies. The disappearance of some 'big men', the renewal of the political class and, in some constituencies, the feeling of being marginalized open competition, often triangular (see the press case studies by county), between young and old, rich and new installed between national leaders and local leaders: this is the case in the counties' “ex‐gema”, Meru, Embu and Thanaka in some constituencies in Kajiado and Lakipia counties, overlapping or not ethnic balance.
Sommaire
1/ Changes in the electoral basis
First Observations
First Analysis
2/ The Polls Unknown: the polls reliability
3/ Debate on polls and floating voters
Appendix
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